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Is spring really here in the tire market

2019-05-29 19:03:32   Source:Rubber China net    Click:    Font Size:Massive Central Small

                                                                                Is spring really here in the tire market

Source: China rubber net author: Yang honghui

China rubber network news recently, about the tire price rise, tire enterprises operating rate recovery report in many media, many media have speculated that the tire market has entered the spring so, the tire market spring really came? In China rubber industry association on April 27, tire branch, in 2016 the general assembly held zhongce rubber group co., LTD., chairman of Shen Jinrong have different views, he thinks, the last 2 months of tire enterprises starts the real ascension is not market demand, and this year China tire enterprises will face the biggest difficulties, the tire industry must stay calm

Since march this year, the sales of Chinese tire enterprises have generally rebounded according to the statistics of China rubber association, since this year, the total tire production of major enterprises showed a slight increase, the enterprise operating rate has increased shen jinrong believes that the cause of the rise in the operating rate, not as most media analysis is the recovery of the market, but for another reason

First, after the Spring Festival this year, with the increase of commodity prices, especially the price of rubber raw materials, the expected decline of tire retailers weakened, and the tire enterprises in general after the Spring Festival a wave of promotional activities, so that retailers increase inventory willingness, tire inventory increase

After the Spring Festival this year, global commodity prices generally rise, China's commodity futures prices are also rising natural rubber futures prices from 9800 yuan (ton price, the same below) to more than 13,000 yuan, an increase of 33%; Synthetic rubber in the spot price is rising from 8000 yuan to 12000 yuan, up more than 50% Shen Jinrong believes that commodity prices rise is inevitable, because many of the current price of raw materials has been completely out of his own value analysis, if the current price tires, setting this round of rising prices of raw materials to make the total cost increase by more than 8% if tire sales prices unchanged, setting is the average profit margins will drop about 8%, and now the average profit margin of only 3% or so, so this round of price increases far beyond the tolerance of tire enterprises Accordingly, the information that tire company raises price in succession on the market recently

Shen Jinrong thinks, the wave starts to rise, is a normal response to years of tire industry starts curve before 3 years, starts the curve of the basic present lower 1 ~ 2 month, 3 ~ 4 month is higher, and maintain to the first half of the year, then in the second half continued to decline and with tire prices falling in recent years, all retailers are reluctant to inventory, but after the Spring Festival this year, rubber raw material prices rising, retailers have started to improve tyre inventory Shen jinrong said, through the domestic major brands of retailers, conservative estimates of nearly two months of retailers every month more storage tires in about 10 days, that is, retailers from close to zero inventory, to the end of April, the average increase in inventory to about 20 days, so the tire factory monthly sales revenue can be increased by 12%, operating rate than the year before by 10%~15%

Second, because the us delayed the initial anti-dumping and countercounterintuitive decision to June, some tire companies stepped up production and exported tires needed by the us market. According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, China exported 396,000 tons of car tires, up 9.8%; Shen jinrong believes that, regardless of whether there is a concentrated export of all-steel tires to the United States or not, after may, these exports will suddenly stop, because no one can afford high double tax and risk export

Shen jinrong believes that the double anti-investigation by the United States will greatly affect the normal operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises. According to the data proposed by the United States, the number of Chinese all-steel tire exports to the United States is 8 million, and if the conservative estimate is 6 million, it will affect the operating rate of Chinese all-steel tire enterprises at least 5%

In conclusion, Shen Jinrong remind tire enterprises, must be with this year's difficulties are fully prepared for the market recently, there has been a feedback with the retailers' inventory filled with parts delivery has been affected so tire tire enterprise in this round of recovery to keep sober judgment, do not be too optimistic, in order to avoid a heavy burden on his back